Exxon Mobil Stock To $120?

Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock has jumped 15% during the past month, and is currently trading at $170.99. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell XOM stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $120 may not be out of reach. We believe there are several things to fear in XOM stock given its overall weak operating performance and financial condition. In addition, keeping in mind its high valuation, we think that the stock is unattractive.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $724 Bil in market cap, Exxon Mobil provides exploration, production, manufacturing, trading, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and specialty products globally.

[1] Valuation Looks High

This table highlights how XOM is valued vs broader market. For more details see: XOM Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Very Weak

• Exxon Mobil has seen its top line shrink at an average rate of -6.4% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have fallen -4.5% from $339 Bil to $324 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues declined -1.3% to $80 Bil in the most recent quarter from $81 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how XOM is growing vs broader market. For more details see: XOM Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Moderate

• XOM last 12 month operating income was $34 Bil representing operating margin of 10.5%
• With cash flow margin of 16.0%, it generated nearly $52 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, XOM generated nearly $29 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 8.9%

This table highlights how XOM profitability vs broader market. For more details see: XOM Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong

• XOM Debt was $44 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $724 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 6.0%
• XOM Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $11 Bil of $449 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 2.4%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Moderate

XOM saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• XOM stock fell 20.5% from a high of $104.59 on 8 June 2022 to $83.14 on 14 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 October 2022
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $170.99 on 27 March 2026 $170.99

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• XOM stock fell 55.6% from a high of $70.90 on 2 January 2020 to $31.45 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 January 2022

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• XOM stock fell 34.1% from a high of $94.56 on 20 May 2008 to $62.35 on 15 October 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 19 July 2013

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read XOM Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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