After A 50% Surge, Is Wynn Still Worth The Bet?
Wynn stock (NASDAQ: WYNN) has been on a tear. The stock is up around 50% year-to-date, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 16% gain. The company reported solid Q3 2025 earnings that topped expectations on both revenue and profit. At first glance, that looks like a comeback story worth betting on. But if you dig into the numbers, the picture gets a lot less glamorous. Our analysis suggests the market’s enthusiasm may be overdone — and that Wynn stock could be heading for a reality check. A pullback to around $90 isn’t out of the question. Let’s unpack why we think investors should tread carefully.
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A Flashy Stock with a Moderate Valuation
At face value, Wynn doesn’t look outrageously expensive. The stock trades at about 29x earnings, a premium to the S&P 500’s 23.7x, but not by much. Its price-to-free-cash-flow multiple sits below the S&P 500. That might sound reasonable — until you consider the quality and consistency of the earnings behind those multiples.
Growth Has Been Anything but Smooth
Wynn’s growth story has been uneven. Over the last three years, revenues have climbed at a solid 22.9% annual average, reflecting the post-pandemic rebound in travel and leisure spending.
Revenue slipped 1.9% over the last twelve months, easing from $7.1 billion to $7.0 billion. Even Q3 2025’s 8.3% year-over-year gain looks modest against that broader slowdown.
Profitability: Better, But Still Thin
Operationally, Wynn has clawed its way back to profitability, with an 18.2% operating margin — roughly in line with the broader market. Cash flow margins are similar, at 18.6%, suggesting the company is converting a decent portion of revenue into cash.
But here’s the catch: net margins are just 5.5%, less than half the S&P 500 average of 12.9%. That means most of Wynn’s cash is spoken for — whether by interest payments, taxes, or operating costs. For a business so tied to high-end gaming and luxury travel, that’s not much room for error.
The Balance Sheet: Strong on Paper, Heavy in Practice
At first glance, Wynn’s financial position shows some strengths: the company held roughly $1.49 billion in cash and cash equivalents (excluding $475 million of short-term investments at its Macau unit) as of September 30, 2025. On the flip side, it has $10.57 billion in total current and long-term debt outstanding at that same date against a market cap of roughly $13 billion. That’s a debt-to-equity ratio approaching 82%, nearly four times the market average. In other words, Wynn’s balance sheet is strong enough to survive, but not strong enough to thrive in a downturn.
History Shows Wynn Is Vulnerable in Crises
This isn’t the first time Wynn investors have faced big swings — and history suggests it won’t be the last.
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During the 2022 inflation shock, Wynn stock plunged 63% from its highs, more than double the S&P 500’s decline.
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In the 2020 pandemic, it fell a staggering 72%, compared to a 34% drop in the index — and it still hasn’t regained those pre-COVID peaks.
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Even going back to the 2008 financial crisis, Wynn cratered 91% before recovering years later.
Wynn’s track record shows a pattern: it falls hard when markets turn south, and its road to recovery is long and uneven. That kind of volatility may excite traders — but it should give long-term investors pause. Read WYNN Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
Why the Fear May Be Justified
At nearly $130 a share, Wynn looks priced for a full recovery that hasn’t yet materialized. The company remains heavily reliant on Macau and Las Vegas — both cyclical, discretionary markets sensitive to economic slowdowns. And with its debt load and modest profitability, Wynn lacks the cushion that steadier, more diversified operators enjoy.
The Bottom Line
Wynn’s YTD surge might make it tempting to stay at the table, but this feels more like a gambler’s hot streak than a sustainable rally. The fundamentals don’t justify the momentum — and with history as a guide, the downside risk looms large.
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