What Needs To Be True To Buy Walmart Stock Now?

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Walmart (WMT) stock returned 22.5% in the month to November 2, 2026, outpacing a 2.3% loss for the S&P 500. Investors are now paying 46 times Walmart’s earnings over the past twelve months, compared with 22.8 times for the median S&P 500 company. This price represents a bet on profit, and management said on its August 20 call that it expects profit to keep growing much faster than sales in the years ahead. How much of that shows up in Walmart’s results so far?

Walmart’s Operating Profit Outgrew Revenue This Past Year

Over the twelve months to July 31, 2026, Walmart’s operating income rose 11.4%, topping 6.2% growth in revenue. The faster profit growth that buyers are paying for has therefore already started to materialize in Walmart’s results. Tariff refunds helped lift the latest quarter, and that quarter accounted for a large share of the twelve-month rise in operating income.

Walmart still keeps a thin slice of each sale. The company posted an operating margin of 4.4% over those twelve months, compared with 18.6% for the median S&P 500 company. Walmart stock commands a far higher earnings multiple than the typical S&P 500 company alongside a far lower business margin, making the pace of profit growth particularly important for Walmart.

Where Is Walmart’s Extra Profit Coming From?

Membership, advertising and marketplace generated almost half of Walmart’s profit growth, management said on the August 20 call, and it expects this to continue. Walmart’s global advertising sales, for one, rose 38% in fiscal Q2 2027. Management also said the company is now earning low double-digit incremental margins, meaning the profit on each extra dollar of sales, and that it sees a way to improve them.

The stores themselves are weaker. Management said in-store comparable sales were down by a low single-digit percentage in fiscal Q2 2027, continuing a trend that began late in the previous fiscal year. It said this came mainly from its health and wellness business, where most of those sales happen in stores. Walmart U.S. comparable sales still rose 2.6% in total, led by transactions. Management also said higher fuel prices were putting more pressure on shoppers than at the start of the year. It expects more than $2 billion of extra fuel-related costs this year beyond its original guidance. The best case for the stock therefore lies in the newer businesses, and the clearest risk is weak in-store sales.

Tariff Refunds Lifted Walmart’s Latest Quarter

Tariff refunds accounted for part of the latest quarter’s jump in operating profit. Management said that after price investments, the refunds added a net benefit of about 750 basis points to operating income growth in fiscal Q2 2027. Without those refunds, underlying growth landed at the top end of management’s 7% to 10% guidance.

The refunds totaled about $2.9 billion, and Walmart is putting that money back into prices and the customer experience, mainly in grocery and general merchandise. For fiscal Q3 2027, management guided operating income growth of 2% to 4% in constant currency, a forecast that already incorporates this spending. With a Q3 sales guide of 3% to 3.75%, profit is not expected to outpace sales for the quarter at the midpoint. Management said reported operating income growth for Q2 and Q3 together would average about 10% per quarter.

Walmart is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2027 results on November 19, 2026, and operating income growth against that guide is the measure to watch.

How Much Walmart Do You Already Own?

If you own an S&P 500 or Nasdaq fund, you already own Walmart, alongside the same few giants that lead those funds. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio takes a different route: 30 quality companies in equal weight, so no single stock dominates. Since its inception in September 2020 it has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000.

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