Can Wayfair Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
Wayfair (W) stock is down 7.8% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around high valuation, slow consumer demand, and insider selling, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Wayfair stands today.
- Size: Wayfair is a $13 Bil company with $12 Bil in revenue currently trading at $101.41.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 3.4% and operating margin of -0.5%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.31 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.39
- Valuation: Wayfair stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -35.7 and P/EBIT multiple of -53.0
- Has returned (median) 47.2% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See W Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell W Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is W stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose W stock falls another 20-30% to $71 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- W stock fell 91.8% from a high of $345.47 on 22 March 2021 to $28.35 on 14 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $112.55 on 27 November 2025 , and currently trades at $101.41
| W | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -91.8% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- W stock fell 78.6% from a high of $109.87 on 22 January 2020 to $23.52 on 19 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 April 2020
| W | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -78.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 36 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- W stock fell 53.4% from a high of $171.57 on 12 March 2019 to $79.87 on 5 December 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 6 May 2020
| W | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -53.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 153 days | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about W stock? Consider portfolio approach.
Portfolios Are The Smarter Way To Invest
Individual picks can be volatile but staying invested is what matters. A diversified portfolio helps you stay the course, capture upside and reduce downside
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.