Is AST SpaceMobile Stock Running Too Hot?
AST SpaceMobile stock (NASDAQ:ASTS) – a company building a low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite constellation to beam broadband directly to smartphones – saw its stock surge by 14% on Friday and remains up by over 21% over the past week. There are a couple of factors driving the recent gains.
The primary catalyst was the announcement that AST SpaceMobile had been named a prime contractor for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program. While the contract itself is considered as “indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity” (IDIQ), it makes ASTS eligible to bid on future task orders within a program that has a massive $151 billion budget ceiling. This validates the “dual-use” nature of AST’s technology, beyond just providing internet to consumer smartphones, the satellites can now be used for military sensing, secure communications, and missile defense.
Besides this, AST SpaceMobile’s technology is now officially part of the broader “Golden Dome” strategy, a multi-layer defense system designed to protect against air, missile, space, and cyber threats. The stock was already carrying momentum from the successful December 23, 2025, launch of the BlueBird 6 satellite. BlueBird 6 is the largest commercial communications array ever deployed in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and supports 10x the data capacity of previous models. Considering this, investors are gaining confidence that ASTS can meet its goal of deploying 45 to 60 more satellites by the end of 2026.
Is The Sky High Valuation Justified By Growth?
With a market cap of about $40 billion, ASTS trades at about 700x consensus 2025 revenues of $60 million and 178x estimated 2026 revenue. This is a steep valuation given that the company is in its early stage of operations. However, growth has been rapid, albeit on a small base, with revenues rising 249% over the past year to $4.9 million. Consensus projects that revenue will rise to $235 million by the next year. See ASTS Revenue Comparison . That being said, losses remain heavy, with operating losses standing at $260 million over the last 12 months. ASTS has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns.
That optimism is rooted in AST’s differentiated position within the satellite broadband race. Unlike SpaceX’s Starlink, which sells hardware and subscriptions directly to consumers, AST’s satellites act as space-based cell towers that integrate directly into existing wireless carrier networks. Partnerships with operators such as AT&T, Vodafone, Rakuten, and Verizon allow users to connect using standard smartphones and SIM cards, extending coverage into remote and underserved regions. This carrier-focused model could support recurring, high-margin revenue over time, especially as AST targets regular launches. In parallel, growing defense adoption adds a potential upside lever, opening the door to longer-term, higher-value government contracts.
Still, the risks remain material. Operating losses totaled $260 million over the past twelve months, and the stock has historically underperformed sharply during periods of market stress. During the 2022 inflation-driven selloff, ASTS fell 68.5% compared with a 25.4% peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500. Read ASTS Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past. The balance sheet does provide a cushion, with $924 million in cash, low leverage, and cash representing nearly half of total assets. That financial runway supports execution, but the valuation leaves little room for delays as the company transitions from satellite deployment to meaningful commercial revenue.
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