How Will Ventas Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Ventas (NYSE:VTR) is expected to report its earnings on Monday, April 27, 2026. The company has $38 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $5.8 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $858 Mil in operating profits and net income of $251 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Ventas’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 63% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -3.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/5/2026 | 3.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% |
| 10/29/2025 | 6.6% | 7.5% | 15.2% |
| 7/30/2025 | 1.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | -6.5% | -5.7% | -8.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | 8.3% | 11.5% | 11.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | 2.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| 5/1/2024 | 5.5% | 8.3% | 14.7% |
| 2/15/2024 | -3.1% | -3.3% | -6.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.3% | -4.3% | 7.3% |
| 8/3/2023 | -6.8% | -9.7% | -10.7% |
| 5/8/2023 | -1.2% | -0.5% | -2.2% |
| 2/9/2023 | 0.9% | 0.7% | -11.1% |
| 11/4/2022 | 2.8% | 14.7% | 14.0% |
| 8/4/2022 | -3.8% | 1.3% | -6.9% |
| 5/5/2022 | -0.1% | -6.0% | -2.7% |
| 1/20/2022 | 2.2% | -0.6% | 3.1% |
| 11/5/2021 | 2.3% | 3.9% | -7.9% |
| 8/6/2021 | -2.8% | -5.7% | -6.1% |
| 5/7/2021 | 1.4% | -0.7% | 5.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 6.7% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -4.3% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.3% | 14.7% | 15.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -9.7% | -11.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 32.1% | 60.1% | 18.6% |
| 3Y History | 58.3% | 79.1% | 33.1% |
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