How Will T-Mobile US Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The company has $211 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $88 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $19 Bil in operating profits and net income of $11 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Smart investing isn’t about stock picking or prediction, it’s about asset allocation. See how Trefis’ Boston-based wealth management partner does it. It has included the High Quality Portfolio as part of its asset allocation strategy.
- Could Cash Machine T-Mobile US Stock Be Your Next Buy?
- T-Mobile US Stock Shares $65 Bil Success With Investors
- How Low Can TMUS Really Go In A Market Crash?
- The Bear Case: How TMUS Behaves During Market Shocks
- Buy or Sell T-Mobile US Stock?
- With T-Mobile US Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside?
T-Mobile US’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 5.2%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -0.4%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/11/2026 | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.3% | -5.4% | -7.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 5.8% | 3.3% | 10.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -11.2% | -5.8% | -7.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 19.5% |
| 10/23/2024 | 5.7% | 0.8% | 7.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.9% | 8.3% | 14.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | -0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| 1/25/2024 | -0.2% | -0.0% | 0.8% |
| 10/25/2023 | -0.1% | 2.0% | 5.6% |
| 7/27/2023 | 0.7% | -3.2% | -4.7% |
| 4/27/2023 | -4.0% | -5.8% | -9.9% |
| 2/1/2023 | 1.1% | -4.2% | -5.5% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% |
| 7/27/2022 | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% |
| 4/27/2022 | 3.9% | 1.0% | 5.2% |
| 2/2/2022 | 10.2% | 16.9% | 12.5% |
| 11/2/2021 | 5.3% | 3.5% | -4.7% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.4% | -1.9% | -4.3% |
| 5/4/2021 | 4.4% | 7.4% | 10.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -0.4% | -4.2% | -5.5% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -5.8% | -9.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -10.1% | 22.6% | 24.6% |
| 3Y History | -28.9% | 40.8% | 55.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of T-Mobile US stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before T-Mobile US. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS Earnings Dates | TMUS | T | CMCSA |
| 2/11/2026 | 5.1% | 18.3% | 11.1% |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.3% | -3.6% | N/A* |
| 4/24/2025 | -11.2% | 1.3% | N/A* |
| 1/29/2025 | 6.3% | 0.4% | N/A* |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.9% | 0.5% | 7.2% |
| 4/25/2024 | -0.1% | -1.4% | N/A* |
| 1/25/2024 | -0.2% | 3.0% | N/A* |
| 10/25/2023 | -0.1% | -0.5% | N/A* |
| 7/27/2023 | 0.7% | -2.6% | N/A* |
| 4/27/2023 | -4.0% | -0.2% | N/A* |
| 2/1/2023 | 1.1% | -1.2% | -1.1% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.4% | 7.7% | N/A* |
| 7/27/2022 | 5.2% | -2.8% | N/A* |
| 4/27/2022 | 3.9% | -5.6% | N/A* |
| 2/2/2022 | 10.2% | -4.5% | 4.1% |
| 11/2/2021 | 5.3% | -2.1% | 1.4% |
| 7/29/2021 | -0.4% | 1.4% | N/A* |
| 5/4/2021 | 4.4% | N/A* | 0.4% |
| CORRELATION | 29.4% | 38.7% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after TMUS
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as TMUS, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.