Vistra Stock To $126?

Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell VST stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $126 may not be out of reach. We believe there are a few things to fear in VST stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $61 Bil in market cap, Vistra provides electricity and natural gas retail across 20 U.S. states, along with electricity generation, wholesale energy trading, commodity risk management, fuel production, and logistics services.

[1] Valuation Looks High

This table highlights how VST is valued vs broader market. For more details see: VST Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Inconsistent

• Vistra has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 9.5% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 5.7% from $16 Bil to $17 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues declined -20.9% to $5.0 Bil in the most recent quarter from $6.3 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how VST is growing vs broader market. For more details see: VST Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Moderate

• VST last 12 month operating income was $2.1 Bil representing operating margin of 12.2%
• With cash flow margin of 23.2%, it generated nearly $4.0 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, VST generated nearly $1.2 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 6.7%

This table highlights how VST profitability vs broader market. For more details see: VST Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Moderate

• VST Debt was $18 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $61 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 28.8%
• VST Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $602 Mil of $38 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 1.6%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Weak

VST has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• VST stock fell 33.2% from a high of $23.83 on 24 February 2021 to $15.92 on 17 May 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 6 April 2022
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $217.92 on 22 September 2025 , and currently trades at $179.16

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• VST stock fell 46.2% from a high of $23.43 on 21 February 2020 to $12.60 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 February 2021

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read VST Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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