ViaSat Inc. Stock Running Out Of Juice After 5% Rise Last Week?

ViaSat Inc. stock (NASDAQ: VSAT) has seen a rise of almost 5% over the past week and currently trades at $51 per share. The stock price shot up in early August from $48 to $56 on the back of strong Q1 ’22 earnings (VSAT’s fiscal year ends in March), before pulling back down to its early August levels. The stock has started picking up again, rising 5% last week, on the back of expanding investor expectations around continuing earnings growth after its strong Q1 ’22 earnings. ViaSat, a provider of high-speed satellite broadband services and secure networking systems, saw revenue come in at $665 million in Q1 ’22, up from $530 million in Q1 ’21. The company saw a turnaround in profitability, turning an operating loss of $5 million in Q1 ’21 to an operating profit of $16 million in Q1 ’22. A further $4 million in other income meant that EPS jumped from -$0.20 to $0.24 over this period.

Now, after the recent rally, will VSAT stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a correction in the stock more likely? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data for the last ten years, returns for VSAT stock average close to just 1.8% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period after experiencing a 4.7% rise over the previous one week (five trading days) period. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding VSAT stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test ViaSat stock expected return after a fall or rise. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF VSAT stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, VSAT stock moves an average of only 1.8 percent, with a 51.2% probability of a positive return.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of VSAT Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for VSAT stock higher after a drop?

Answer:

Consider two situations,

Case 1: VSAT stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: VSAT stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for VSAT stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

VSAT stock fares about the same in both cases, with an average return of 1.8% over the next month (21 trading days), both under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), and Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how VSAT stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer:

If you buy and hold VSAT stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For VSAT stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer:

The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.

VSAT’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for ViaSat stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.