How Will Vertex Pharmaceuticals Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $108 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $12 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $4.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Vertex Pharmaceuticals’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -3.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/12/2026 | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| 11/3/2025 | -1.0% | -1.1% | 7.4% |
| 8/4/2025 | -20.6% | -20.7% | -16.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | -10.0% | -12.2% | -10.9% |
| 2/10/2025 | -3.1% | -1.7% | 5.4% |
| 11/4/2024 | 5.7% | 6.1% | -1.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.2% | -7.9% | -2.0% |
| 5/6/2024 | 1.9% | 6.8% | 20.0% |
| 2/5/2024 | -3.0% | -2.4% | -4.0% |
| 11/6/2023 | -1.9% | -1.8% | -8.4% |
| 8/1/2023 | 3.1% | -0.9% | 0.9% |
| 5/1/2023 | 0.3% | -0.3% | -6.2% |
| 2/7/2023 | -4.9% | -2.7% | -7.0% |
| 10/27/2022 | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% |
| 8/4/2022 | 4.8% | 6.3% | 2.3% |
| 5/5/2022 | -4.7% | -9.6% | 0.6% |
| 1/26/2022 | 0.7% | 11.9% | 1.6% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.2% | 5.3% | 12.7% |
| 7/29/2021 | 0.6% | 1.3% | -0.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 6.2% | 3.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.4% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.0% | 11.9% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -20.6% | -20.7% | -16.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -13.6% | -19.5% | -18.4% |
| 3Y History | -25.8% | -24.8% | -14.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Vertex Pharmaceuticals. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| VRTX Earnings Dates | VRTX | REGN |
| 11/3/2025 | -1.0% | -1.9% |
| 8/4/2025 | -20.6% | 2.3% |
| 5/5/2025 | -10.0% | 6.1% |
| 2/10/2025 | -3.1% | -3.7% |
| 11/4/2024 | 5.7% | -1.1% |
| 5/6/2024 | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| 2/5/2024 | -3.0% | -0.9% |
| 11/6/2023 | -1.9% | 1.7% |
| 2/7/2023 | -4.9% | -1.7% |
| 8/4/2022 | 4.8% | 1.0% |
| 5/5/2022 | -4.7% | -3.3% |
| CORRELATION | 2.3% |
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