How Will Veeva Systems Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Veeva Systems (NYSE:VEEV) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, November 20, 2025. The company has $45 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.0 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $799 Mil in operating profits and net income of $810 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Veeva Systems’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 8.9%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -8.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2025 | -7.2% | -8.0% | -1.1% |
| 5/28/2025 | 19.0% | 20.9% | 20.9% |
| 3/5/2025 | 7.4% | 6.1% | 0.7% |
| 11/8/2024 | 5.2% | 2.8% | 10.1% |
| 8/28/2024 | 8.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% |
| 5/30/2024 | -10.3% | -4.7% | -6.4% |
| 2/29/2024 | -1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| 11/9/2023 | -14.2% | -8.9% | -11.0% |
| 8/30/2023 | 8.4% | 15.3% | 5.6% |
| 5/31/2023 | 19.7% | 14.0% | 19.3% |
| 3/1/2023 | 4.5% | 3.9% | 7.8% |
| 12/1/2022 | -8.6% | -9.6% | -16.6% |
| 8/31/2022 | -14.0% | -12.4% | -17.3% |
| 6/1/2022 | 14.7% | 14.1% | 21.6% |
| 3/2/2022 | -16.2% | -18.2% | -7.9% |
| 12/1/2021 | -3.6% | 0.3% | -6.1% |
| 9/1/2021 | -5.4% | -8.3% | -13.9% |
| 5/27/2021 | 10.1% | 8.9% | 20.4% |
| 3/2/2021 | -8.3% | -12.7% | -9.1% |
| 12/1/2020 | -4.2% | -5.2% | -4.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -8.3% | -8.9% | -8.5% |
| Max Positive | 19.7% | 20.9% | 21.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -18.2% | -17.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -15.0% | -4.8% | -5.6% |
| 3Y History | -33.2% | -27.5% | -14.8% |
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