UPS Stock Surges 8.9% With A 6-day Winning Spree On Analyst Price Hikes
United Parcel Service (UPS) stock hit day 6-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 8.9%. The company market cap has surged by about $7.5 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $92 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 8.9% compared to 1.8% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] BofA Upgrade to Neutral, PT to $114
- Should You Buy Or Sell UPS Stock At $105?
- United Parcel Service Stock Has Paid Out $54 Bil to Investors in the Past Decade
- UPS Has Paid Out $54 Bil to Investors in the Past Decade
- UPS Stock Down -18% after 5-Day Loss Streak
- S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low
- S&P 500 Movers | Winners: GLW, INCY, CDNS | Losers: CARR, UPS, BRO
- Rating lifted from ‘Underperform’ to ‘Neutral’
- Price Target substantially raised from $99,00
- Impact: Strengthened Investor Confidence, Accelerated Price Momentum
[2] Citigroup Price Target Hike to $126
- Maintained ‘Buy’ Rating
- Price Target increased from $120,00
- Impact: Reinforced ‘Buy’ Thesis, Sustained Upward Price Pressure
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are several things to fear in UPS stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. This isn’t appropriately reflected in the stock’s Moderate valuation which is why we think it is Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell UPS).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this 8.9% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To catch the next winner before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has flagged 5 new opportunities that haven not surged yet.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for UPS stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | UPS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | 8.9% | 1.8% |
| 1M (21D) | 11.4% | 1.8% |
| 3M (63D) | 28.9% | 3.4% |
| YTD 2026 | 8.9% | 1.8% |
| 2025 | -15.9% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | -15.9% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -6.0% | 24.2% |
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 30 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 28 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 9 | 15 |
| 4D | 5 | 6 |
| 5D | 11 | 2 |
| 6D | 5 | 0 |
| 7D or more | 0 | 5 |
| Total >=3 D | 30 | 28 |
Key Financials for United Parcel Service (UPS)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $91.0 Bil | $91.1 Bil |
| Operating Income | $9.1 Bil | $8.5 Bil |
| Net Income | $6.7 Bil | $5.8 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $21.2 Bil | $21.4 Bil |
| Operating Income | $1.8 Bil | $1.8 Bil |
| Net Income | $1.3 Bil | $1.3 Bil |
While UPS stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.