How Low Can Texas Instruments Stock Really Go?
Texas Instruments defies its Q4 earnings miss with bullish Q1 guidance, signaling a recovery in analog and industrial chips. But as investors weigh the sustainability of this sector rebound, it’s worth asking: can TXN maintain momentum amid evolving market demands?
Before judging its downturn resilience, let’s look at where Texas Instruments stands today.
- Size: Texas Instruments is a $193 Bil company with $18 Bil in revenue currently trading at $212.11.
- Fundamentals: Last 12-month revenue growth of 13.0% and operating margin of 34.7%.
- Liquidity: Has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07 and a cash-to-assets ratio of 0.14
- Valuation: Texas Instruments stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 38.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 30.8
These metrics point to a Strong operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Relatively Expensive. For details, see Buy or Sell TXN Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors looking to add TXN to their portfolio: how resilient is TXN stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose TXN stock falls 20-30% to $148 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- TXN stock fell 30.2% from a high of $201.29 on 21 October 2021 to $140.50 on 30 October 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 22 May 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $226.56 on 11 February 2026 , and currently trades at $212.11
| TXN | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -30.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 205 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- TXN stock fell 30.4% from a high of $134.25 on 23 January 2020 to $93.50 on 16 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 20 July 2020
| TXN | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -30.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 126 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- TXN stock fell 26.8% from a high of $119.89 on 23 January 2018 to $87.80 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 July 2019
| TXN | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -26.8% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 211 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- TXN stock fell 64.9% from a high of $39.18 on 17 July 2007 to $13.77 on 2 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 July 2013
| TXN | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -64.9% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,606 days | 1,480 days |
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