Between Microsoft and Twilio, Which Stock Looks Set to Break Out?
Twilio fell -11% during the past Week. You may be tempted to buy more, or may want to reduce your exposure. But there is an entirely different perspective you might be missing. Is there a better alternative? Turns out, its peer Microsoft gives you more. Microsoft (MSFT) stock offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Twilio (TWLO) stock, suggesting you may be better off investing in MSFT
- MSFT’s Last 12 Months revenue growth was 17.9%, vs. TWLO’s 15.7%.
- In addition, its Last 3-Year Average revenue growth came in at 15.3%, ahead of TWLO’s 10.3%.
- MSFT leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 46.8% and 3-year average of 45.6%.
These differences become even clearer when you look at the financials side by side. The table highlights how TWLO’s fundamentals stack up against those of MSFT on growth, margins, momentum, and valuation multiples.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| TWLO | MSFT | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 120.3 | 20.1 | MSFT |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 20.0% | 18.3% | TWLO |
| Last 12 Months | 15.7% | 17.9% | MSFT |
| Last 3 Year Average | 10.3% | 15.3% | MSFT |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 4.9% | 46.8% | MSFT |
| Last 3 Year Average | -0.7% | 45.6% | MSFT |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | 220.4% | 26.4% | TWLO |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
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See detailed fundamentals on Buy or Sell MSFT Stock and Buy or Sell TWLO Stock. Below we compare market return and related metrics across years.
Historical Market Performance
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| TWLO Return | -22% | -81% | 55% | 42% | 32% | 49% | -37% | ||
| MSFT Return | 52% | -28% | 58% | 13% | 16% | -14% | 94% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% | <=== | |
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| TWLO Win Rate | 33% | 17% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 83% | 49% | ||
| MSFT Win Rate | 75% | 25% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | 62% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| TWLO Max Drawdown | -44% | -84% | -39% | -30% | -45% | -24% | -44% | ||
| MSFT Max Drawdown | -9% | -36% | -13% | -15% | -21% | -26% | -20% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | -13% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/9/2026 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read TWLO Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has fallen and recovered in the past.
Still not sure about TWLO or MSFT? Consider portfolio approach.
Portfolios Win When Stock Picks Fall Short
Single stocks swing wildly, but staying invested matters. A well-built portfolio helps you stay invested, captures upside, and softens the blows from individual stocks.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.