TWLO Stock Surges 13% With A 5-day Winning Spree On AEG Partnership
Twilio (TWLO) – a cloud communications platform for building customer engagement applications – hit 5-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 13%. The company market cap has surged by about $2.3 Bil over the last 5 days, and currently stands at $21 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 5.8% compared to 1.5% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] Strategic Partnership with AEG
- 5-day winning streak starting on the day of the announcement
- Integration of Twilio’s platform into major sports and entertainment venues
- Impact: Sustained stock price increase, Positive investor sentiment
[2] Citizens Analyst Reiteration of Market Outperform
- Analyst report cited as a reason for a 4.6% stock increase on 1/26/2026
- Positive outlook on user engagement and AI voice agent adoption
- Impact: Stock price jump, Reinforced positive market sentiment
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are only a couple of things to fear in TWLO stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s High valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced (For details, see Buy or Sell TWLO).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for TWLO stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | TWLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 4.4% | 0.5% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | 12.5% | 0.1% |
| 1M (21D) | -5.0% | 0.6% |
| 3M (63D) | 20.9% | 3.1% |
| YTD 2026 | -5.8% | 1.5% |
| 2025 | 31.6% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 42.5% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 55.0% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has TWLO behaved after prior drops? See TWLO Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 65 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 42 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 17 | 37 |
| 4D | 35 | 0 |
| 5D | 9 | 4 |
| 6D | 3 | 0 |
| 7D or more | 1 | 1 |
| Total >=3 D | 65 | 42 |
Key Financials for Twilio (TWLO)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $4.2 Bil | $4.5 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-390.3 Mil | $-40.4 Mil |
| Net Income | $-1.0 Bil | $-109.4 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.2 Bil | $1.3 Bil |
| Operating Income | $37.0 Mil | $40.9 Mil |
| Net Income | $22.4 Mil | $37.2 Mil |
While TWLO stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.