Would You Still Hold Tesla Stock If It Fell 30%?
Tesla (TSLA) stock is up 7.8% in 21 trading days. The recent 7.8% rally in Tesla (TSLA) over 21 trading days reflects renewed optimism around its Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi ambitions, but big moves like this often invite a tougher question: is the stock truly resilient when markets reverse?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Tesla stands today.
- Size: Tesla is a $1.5 Tril company with $96 Bil in revenue currently trading at $459.64.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -1.6% and operating margin of 5.1%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.01 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.31
- Valuation: Tesla stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 292.0 and P/EBIT multiple of 212.8
- Has returned (median) 21.5% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See TSLA Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell TSLA Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors chasing this rally: how resilient is TSLA stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose TSLA stock falls 20-30% to $322 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- TSLA stock fell 73.6% from a high of $409.97 on 4 November 2021 to $108.10 on 3 January 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 December 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $489.88 on 16 December 2025 , and currently trades at $459.64
| TSLA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -73.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 708 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- TSLA stock fell 60.6% from a high of $61.16 on 19 February 2020 to $24.08 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 8 June 2020
| TSLA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 82 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- TSLA stock fell 53.5% from a high of $25.67 on 18 September 2017 to $11.93 on 3 June 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 18 December 2019
| TSLA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -53.5% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 198 days | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about TSLA stock? Consider portfolio approach.
Stock Picking Falls Short Against Multi Asset Portfolios
Single markets are unpredictable but different assets react differently. A multi asset portfolio cuts downside shocks while keeping upside on the table.
The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices