Down 37% Last Month, Is Tesla Stock Set For A Rebound?

TSLA: Tesla logo

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has seen considerable selling pressure, falling by almost 37% over the last month (about 21 trading days), amid mounting concerns that demand for the company’s vehicles is slowing down. Tesla reduced prices on its Model 3 and Y vehicles in the U.S. by $7,500 through December 31, 2022, while also offering complementary supercharging. While these perks were intended to get customers to take delivery of vehicles in December instead of waiting for the new federal credits that went into effect in January, they could indicate that Tesla is seeing some pressure. Tesla has also been resorting to discounts in China, and there are reports that the company is reducing its production schedule at its Shanghai plant for January. Separately, Tesla stock also continues to be weighed down by CEO Elon Musk’s recent acquisition of the social media app Twitter. Mr. Musk has been selling Tesla shares to fund his purchase, and investors are also concerned that Twitter could be seen as an unwanted distraction for Mr. Musk taking away from his time at Tesla.

However, now that Tesla stock has seen a decline of about 37% over the last month, will it continue its downward trajectory in the near term, or is a recovery imminent? There were only nine instances in the last 10 years when Tesla’s stock saw a trailing 21-day drop of 37% or more. Given how unlikely such an exceptional stock price movement is, we looked at the 120 instances where TSLA stock saw an unusual drop of 20% or more over a 21-day period. Out of this, 70 of these instances resulted in TSLA stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 70 out of 120, or about a 58% chance of a rise in Tesla stock over the next month, implying a marginally positive outlook for Tesla stock. See our analysis on  Tesla Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jan 2023
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 TSLA Return 0% 0% 765%
 S&P 500 Return 0% 0% 71%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 0% 0% 215%
Relevant Articles
  1. How Will Tesla’s Earnings Trend After A Tough Q1 Delivery Report?
  2. With Deliveries Falling And Inventory Piling Up, What’s Next For Tesla Stock?
  3. Down Almost 20% This Year, Is Tesla Stock Good Value?
  4. Down 9% Year-To Date, Will A Q4 Earnings Beat Drive Tesla Stock Higher?
  5. With Delivery Growth Cooling, Is Tesla Stock Still A Buy At $250?
  6. Following A Lackluster Cybertruck Debut, Is Tesla Stock Overvalued At $240?

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/1/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates