How Will T-Mobile Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, with revenue expected to rise by about 6% year-over-year to $21 billion, while earnings per share are projected to edge higher to $2.69. Growth is likely to be driven by postpaid phone additions and the expansion of its high-speed wireless broadband business, driven by the company’s 5G network, which now covers over 330 million people in the U.S. However, growth has been moderating in recent quarters. In Q1, T-Mobile reported 495,000 new postpaid phone net additions, down by 37,000 compared to the year-ago period, as competitors like AT&T and Verizon intensified promotions to retain and attract customers. With the U.S. telecom market approaching saturation, carriers are increasingly relying on aggressive pricing and value-added services to drive customer acquisition. Churn – or the rate at which customers leave – also ticked up by 5 basis points to 0.91% over the first quarter.

The carrier has a $259 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $83 billion, and it was operationally profitable, with $19 billion in operating profits and net income of $12 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader. There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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T-Mobile US’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 13 positive returns = 5.3%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -0.4%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like T-Mobile US, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.