Time To Buy The Dip In TransMedics Stock?
TransMedics (TMDX) stock has fallen by 12.4% in less than a month, from $148.00 on 3rd Mar, 2026 to $129.61 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, TMDX stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 40% , with median peak return reaching 121%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 2.0% |
| 3M | -3.8% |
| 6M | 11.8% |
| 12M | 39.7% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
TMDX had 14 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 121% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 266 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -43% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | TMDX Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | TMDX | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 40% | 121% | -43% | 266 | ||||
| 7212025 | -24% | 6% | 25% | 45% | 0% | 133 | ||
| 10072024 | -24% | 1% | -20% | 7% | -58% | 248 | ||
| 3222024 | -21% | 5% | -1% | 149% | -20% | 158 | ||
| 8092023 | -21% | 2% | 152% | 150% | -43% | 365 | ||
| 10072022 | -22% | -13% | 26% | 133% | -5% | 284 | ||
| 11162021 | -20% | 8% | 132% | 134% | -49% | 356 | ||
| 10152021 | -21% | -1% | 53% | 110% | -53% | 332 | ||
| 8192021 | -21% | 2% | 76% | 88% | -51% | 351 | ||
| 4122021 | -20% | 9% | -5% | 21% | -56% | 88 | ||
| 9212020 | -22% | -2% | 113% | 239% | -16% | 182 | ||
| 6012020 | -21% | 7% | 98% | 266% | -9% | 294 | ||
| 3022020 | -22% | -7% | 165% | 165% | -30% | 365 | ||
| 10042019 | -22% | 1% | -21% | 12% | -42% | 109 | ||
| 8062019 | -22% | -2% | -17% | 15% | -52% | 44 | ||
TransMedics Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 37.1% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 92.8% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 31.8% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 8.8 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 35.4 |
Not sure if you can take a call on TMDX stock? Consider portfolio approach
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