How Will Target Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Target (NYSE:TGT) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, November 19, 2025. The company has $40 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $106 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $5.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.9 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
Target’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 8.0%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -6.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/20/2025 | -6.3% | -8.8% | -15.1% |
| 5/21/2025 | -5.2% | -2.2% | -2.6% |
| 3/4/2025 | -3.0% | -5.7% | -13.5% |
| 11/20/2024 | -21.4% | -18.3% | -15.8% |
| 8/21/2024 | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.3% |
| 5/22/2024 | -8.0% | -5.2% | -6.2% |
| 3/5/2024 | 12.0% | 11.7% | 16.6% |
| 11/15/2023 | 17.8% | 18.1% | 27.4% |
| 8/16/2023 | 3.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| 5/17/2023 | 2.6% | -6.2% | -12.2% |
| 2/28/2023 | 1.0% | -1.0% | -4.2% |
| 11/16/2022 | -13.1% | -11.8% | -17.5% |
| 8/17/2022 | -2.7% | -10.1% | -7.8% |
| 5/18/2022 | -24.9% | -30.3% | -33.6% |
| 3/1/2022 | 9.8% | 5.6% | 11.6% |
| 11/17/2021 | -4.7% | -6.5% | -15.6% |
| 8/18/2021 | -2.8% | -1.6% | -3.0% |
| 5/19/2021 | 6.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
| 3/2/2021 | -6.8% | -5.0% | 7.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 8.0% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -6.0% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 18.1% | 27.4% |
| Max Negative | -24.9% | -30.3% | -33.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -32.1% | 16.5% | 22.3% |
| 3Y History | -46.3% | -9.5% | 26.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Target stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Target. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| TGT Earnings Dates | TGT | AMZN |
| 8/20/2025 | -6.3% | -4.4% |
| 5/21/2025 | -5.2% | 5.7% |
| 3/4/2025 | -3.0% | -14.7% |
| 11/20/2024 | -21.4% | 8.8% |
| 8/21/2024 | 11.2% | -2.2% |
| 5/22/2024 | -8.0% | 4.6% |
| 11/15/2023 | 17.8% | 19.8% |
| 8/16/2023 | 3.0% | 4.8% |
| 5/17/2023 | 2.6% | 5.2% |
| 2/28/2023 | 1.0% | -16.5% |
| 11/16/2022 | -13.1% | -12.5% |
| 8/17/2022 | -2.7% | 16.2% |
| 5/18/2022 | -24.9% | -25.9% |
| 3/1/2022 | 9.8% | 8.9% |
| 11/17/2021 | -4.7% | 3.0% |
| 8/18/2021 | -2.8% | -11.1% |
| 5/19/2021 | 6.1% | -6.9% |
| 3/2/2021 | -6.8% | -8.4% |
| CORRELATION | 32.9% |
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