Down 29%, Is Atlassian Stock a Buy Now?
Atlassian (TEAM) stock has fallen by 29.3% in less than a month, from $160.87 on 7th Jan, 2026 to $113.70 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, TEAM stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 2.1% , with median peak return reaching 51%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 2.1% |
| 3M | 23.1% |
| 6M | -9.1% |
| 12M | 2.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
TEAM had 4 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 51% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 142 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -27% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | TEAM Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | TEAM | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 2% | 51% | -27% | 142 | ||||
| 3272025 | -30% | -6% | -47% | 3% | -47% | 32 | ||
| 11042022 | -43% | 2% | 45% | 73% | -6% | 311 | ||
| 5062022 | -31% | -9% | -34% | 43% | -42% | 102 | ||
| 2052016 | -33% | -8% | 38% | 58% | -11% | 182 | ||
Atlassian Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 19.5% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 22.2% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 27.6% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -2.9 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 87.2 |
Not sure if you can take a call on TEAM stock? Consider portfolio approach
Portfolios Beat Stock Picking
Individual stocks are unpredictable. A smart portfolio keeps you invested, limits downside shocks, and provides upside exposure
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.