T Down 13% In A Month. How Confident Are You In The Stock?
AT&T (T) stock is down 12.6% in 21 trading days. While history suggests price dips recover, there is risk – specific to growth, balance sheet and downturn resilience. Consider the following data:
- Size: A $186 Bil company with $124 Bil in revenue currently trading at $25.87.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 1.5% and operating margin of 19.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.8 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.03
- Valuation: Currently trading at P/E multiple of 14.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 7.3
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 20.2% within a year. See T Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for T, see Buy or Sell T Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and T drops another 20-30% to $18 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience. Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
T stock has fallen meaningfully recently and we currently find it risky. This may feel like a caution, and there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. However, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Separately, consider what could long-term performance for your portfolio be if you combined 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with equities.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: T provides global telecommunications, media, and technology services, including wireless voice and data, device sales, and video services in Latin America.
2022 Inflation Shock
- T stock fell 45.7% from a high of $24.76 on 10 May 2021 to $13.45 on 18 July 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 February 2025
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $29.62 on 15 September 2025 , and currently trades at $25.87
| T | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -45.7% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 573 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- T stock fell 31.4% from a high of $29.62 on 22 January 2020 to $20.31 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| T | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -31.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- T stock fell 35.8% from a high of $32.33 on 17 March 2017 to $20.76 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
| T | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.8% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- T stock fell 49.3% from a high of $32.50 on 26 September 2007 to $16.48 on 9 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 June 2016
| T | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -49.3% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 2670 days | 1480 days |
Worried that AT&T could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.