How Will Sterling Infrastructure Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Sterling Infrastructure (NASDAQ:STRL) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $16 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.5 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $414 Mil in operating profits and net income of $290 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Sterling Infrastructure’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 16 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 63% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 60% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 5.2%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -3.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/25/2026 | -4.8% | -7.7% | -8.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | -2.6% | -2.1% | -15.4% |
| 8/4/2025 | 9.1% | 6.7% | 0.8% |
| 2/25/2025 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.6% | 6.4% | 11.6% |
| 8/5/2024 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/6/2024 | 15.8% | 21.6% | 10.6% |
| 2/26/2024 | 18.1% | 23.8% | 25.4% |
| 11/6/2023 | -15.9% | -11.0% | -10.3% |
| 8/7/2023 | 22.3% | 29.7% | 29.6% |
| 2/28/2023 | 3.7% | 8.7% | -1.2% |
| 11/1/2022 | -0.3% | 12.3% | 8.6% |
| 8/1/2022 | -4.4% | -2.2% | -2.2% |
| 3/1/2022 | 5.0% | -1.4% | -1.0% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.7% | 17.5% | 5.8% |
| 8/2/2021 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 6.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -2.2% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 22.3% | 29.7% | 29.6% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -11.0% | -15.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 22.9% | -3.3% | -41.6% |
| 3Y History | 31.2% | 4.7% | -52.0% |
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