How Will Sempra Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Sempra (NYSE:SRE) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $62 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $14 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.8 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding SRE stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
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Sempra’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 59% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 1.5%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -2.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/26/2026 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -0.1% | 1.1% | -2.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.8% | 1.3% | -0.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.1% | -1.3% | 1.3% |
| 2/25/2025 | -19.0% | -18.1% | -20.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | 7.3% | 12.1% | 11.3% |
| 8/6/2024 | -2.1% | 0.4% | 6.0% |
| 5/7/2024 | 1.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% |
| 2/27/2024 | 0.2% | -0.2% | -1.5% |
| 11/3/2023 | 0.4% | -3.5% | 1.0% |
| 8/3/2023 | -2.4% | -2.1% | -4.4% |
| 2/28/2023 | -3.2% | -2.5% | -5.3% |
| 11/3/2022 | 1.4% | -0.3% | 10.2% |
| 8/4/2022 | -1.9% | -0.7% | 2.1% |
| 2/25/2022 | 5.4% | 11.5% | 21.9% |
| 11/5/2021 | 0.0% | -4.5% | -1.5% |
| 8/5/2021 | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 1.2% | 4.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.3% | 12.1% | 21.9% |
| Max Negative | -19.0% | -18.1% | -20.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 32.9% | 20.7% | 8.6% |
| 3Y History | 26.1% | -5.8% | -36.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Sempra stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Sempra. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRE Earnings Dates | SRE | PCG | NEE | DUK |
| 2/26/2026 | 0.7% | 7.5% | N/A* | 5.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -1.7% | N/A* |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.8% | 7.3% | -0.3% | 1.6% |
| 5/8/2025 | -0.1% | -1.2% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 2/25/2025 | -19.0% | 0.5% | N/A* | 3.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 7.3% | N/A* | -12.3% | N/A* |
| 8/6/2024 | -2.1% | -1.2% | 2.1% | N/A* |
| 5/7/2024 | 1.8% | N/A* | 8.7% | N/A* |
| 2/27/2024 | 0.2% | -0.4% | N/A* | -0.8% |
| 11/3/2023 | 0.4% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 0.4% |
| 8/3/2023 | -2.4% | -1.6% | -7.1% | N/A* |
| 2/28/2023 | -3.2% | 2.2% | N/A* | -2.4% |
| 11/3/2022 | 1.4% | -1.2% | -1.1% | N/A* |
| 8/4/2022 | -1.9% | 2.5% | 9.6% | N/A* |
| 2/25/2022 | 5.4% | -0.3% | N/A* | 1.4% |
| 11/5/2021 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 8/5/2021 | 1.6% | -8.7% | 4.3% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 9.1% | -10.6% | 19.3% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after SRE
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