Stocks, Bonds, Gold & Crypto Market Update 9/25/2025: Where Is The Capital Flowing & Why It Matters?
Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and the last month.
- Equity dropped 0.5% yesterday, versus -0.6% weekly and 2% monthly changes.
- Bonds fell 0.1% yesterday, after -0.3% weekly and 0.6% monthly moves.
- Gold gained 0.4% yesterday, with positive returns also seen weekly and monthly.
- Commodities rose 0.7% yesterday, adding to gains over the week and month.
- Real Estate slipped 0.3% yesterday, continuing weakness across week and month.
- Bitcoin decreased 0.06% yesterday, versus -3.3% weekly and 1.3% monthly changes.
| ETF | 1D | 1W | 1M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -0.5% | -0.6% | 2.0% |
| Bonds | AGG | -0.1% | -0.3% | 0.6% |
| Gold | GLD | 0.4% | 2.7% | 10.5% |
| Commodities | DBC | 0.7% | 1.6% | 3.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.3% | -2.3% | -1.4% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -0.1% | -3.3% | 1.3% |
Why does it matter?
- Robinhood Stock: The Multiple Tells The Wrong Story
- How ISRG Just Secured The U.S. Market
- How UNH Stock Is Trading Short-Term Margins For Long-Term Moats
- Key Metrics To Track For Capital One After Its Q1 Earnings Miss
- Marvell Stock: The Good News Keeps Coming
- Fifth Third Earnings: Adjusted EPS Beats Despite Revenue Miss And Acquisition.
- See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
- Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
- Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.
We take a macro-conscious approach to strategic asset allocation, even within equities – adjusting exposure across sectors and styles in High Quality Portfolio
Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile
| ETF | Return | Volatility | Sharpe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | 14.6% | 15.4% | 76.8% |
| Bonds | AGG | 1.8% | 5.1% | -13.1% |
| Gold | GLD | 12.3% | 14.1% | 69.3% |
| Commodities | DBC | 5.0% | 16.1% | 21.7% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 5.8% | 17.7% | 26.1% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | 85.9% | 76.1% | 114.2% |
Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years
How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?
| Equity | Bonds | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | – | 11% | 20% | 11% | 4.9% | 13% | 1.5% | 35% | 25% | 25% | 73% | 70% | 63% | 24% | 37% | 39% |
| Bonds | 11% | 20% | 11% | – | 35% | 35% | 16% | -0.2% | -2.5% | -7.0% | 27% | 36% | 44% | 11% | 7.5% | -3.0% |
| Gold | 4.9% | 13% | 1.5% | 35% | 35% | 16% | – | 26% | 33% | 36% | 13% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 8.6% | 2.9% |
| Commodities | 35% | 25% | 25% | -0.2% | -2.5% | -7.0% | 26% | 33% | 36% | – | 23% | 16% | 13% | 9.7% | 12% | 7.7% |
| Real Estate | 73% | 70% | 63% | 27% | 36% | 44% | 13% | 20% | 15% | 23% | 16% | 13% | – | 17% | 24% | 19% |
| Bitcoin | 24% | 37% | 39% | 11% | 7.5% | -3.0% | 10% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 9.7% | 12% | 7.7% | 17% | 24% | 19% | – |
The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order
Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?
| ETF | Inflation Shock | Covid Pandemic | 2018 Correction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -23.0% | -30.4% | -19.3% |
| Bonds | AGG | -14.1% | -2.1% | 1.4% |
| Gold | GLD | -7.7% | -6.3% | 5.0% |
| Commodities | DBC | 20.5% | -23.7% | -16.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -29.8% | -41.6% | -11.1% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -56.0% | -33.5% | -37.4% |
The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.