How Will JM Smucker Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
JM Smucker (NYSE:SJM) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, November 25, 2025. The company has $11 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $8.7 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $-1.5 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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JM Smucker’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 3.3%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2025 | -4.4% | 1.3% | -2.5% |
| 6/10/2025 | -15.6% | -14.7% | -6.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | -0.0% | 0.2% | 6.9% |
| 11/26/2024 | 5.7% | 3.2% | -2.4% |
| 8/28/2024 | -4.9% | -0.1% | -0.7% |
| 6/6/2024 | 4.6% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
| 2/27/2024 | -2.1% | -2.6% | -1.6% |
| 12/5/2023 | 3.3% | 8.1% | 14.4% |
| 8/29/2023 | 2.1% | 0.1% | -12.2% |
| 6/6/2023 | -1.8% | 1.4% | -0.3% |
| 2/28/2023 | -0.1% | 1.6% | 5.7% |
| 11/21/2022 | 1.3% | 3.7% | 6.3% |
| 8/23/2022 | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| 6/7/2022 | 5.7% | 3.3% | 7.8% |
| 3/1/2022 | -6.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 11/23/2021 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| 8/26/2021 | -2.6% | -3.9% | -6.4% |
| 6/3/2021 | 1.4% | 0.0% | -4.3% |
| 2/25/2021 | 1.6% | 0.7% | 11.9% |
| 11/24/2020 | 1.5% | 0.7% | -0.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 15 | 9 |
| # Negative | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 1.3% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.4% |
| Max Positive | 5.7% | 8.1% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -14.7% | -12.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -45.0% | -45.0% | -20.8% |
| 3Y History | -27.4% | -56.3% | -34.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of JM Smucker stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before JM Smucker. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| SJM Earnings Dates | SJM | MDLZ |
| 8/27/2025 | -4.4% | -11.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -0.0% | 14.0% |
| 11/26/2024 | 5.7% | -6.2% |
| 8/28/2024 | -4.9% | 6.3% |
| 2/27/2024 | -2.1% | -4.2% |
| 2/28/2023 | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| 11/21/2022 | 1.3% | 6.4% |
| 8/23/2022 | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 11/23/2021 | 5.7% | 0.1% |
| 2/25/2021 | 1.6% | -5.4% |
| CORRELATION | 42.3% |
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