Why Rocket Lab Stock Jumped 50%?
Rocket Lab (RKLB)’s stock soared 45%, fueled not just by a solid 10% revenue jump but also a sharp 36% boost in valuation. Behind the surge: a Q3 earnings beat, a landmark SDA deal, Neutron Rocket strides, fresh analyst optimism, and whispers of a SpaceX IPO ripple. Let’s unpack the buzz.
Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.
| 10182025 | 1162026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 66.3 | 96.3 | 45.3% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 504.3 | 554.5 | 10.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 67.7 | 91.8 | 35.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 515.1 | 528.7 | -2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 45.2% |
So what is happening here? The stock surged 45%, driven by a 10% revenue increase and a 36% boost in valuation multiple. Let’s dive into the key events behind these shifts.
Here Is Why Rocket Lab Stock Moved
- Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Reported -$0.03 EPS (beat -$0.05 est.) & $155M revenue (beat $152.45M est.).
- Major SDA Contract: $816M contract from Space Development Agency, nearly doubling its backlog.
- Neutron Rocket Progress: First Neutron launch expected Q1 2026; R&D spending approaching peak levels.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Morgan Stanley upgraded to ‘Overweight’; KeyBanc downgraded citing valuation.
- SpaceX IPO Speculation: Rumors of SpaceX IPO fueled sector-wide re-rating, benefiting RKLB.
Our Current Assesment Of RKLB Stock
Opinion: We currently find RKLB stock relatively expensive. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell RKLB Stock to see what drives our current opinion.
Risk: A good way to gauge RKLB’s risk is to check its fall during major market crises. It dropped only about 3% during the Covid pandemic, which is relatively mild. But during the inflation shock, the stock plunged over 82%. That’s a huge hit, showing that despite positive factors, RKLB can still face severe drawdowns when market conditions turn. Even with promising outlooks, volatility is very real for this name.
RKLB stock may have seen strong gains recently, but investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.