How Will Rocket Lab Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 10, 2025. The company has $26 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $504 Mil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-222 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-231 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Rocket Lab’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 16 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 56% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 12%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -2.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.1% | -3.2% | 8.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | -11.2% | 9.2% | 28.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | 3.3% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 11/12/2024 | 28.4% | 39.8% | 54.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.6% | 22.2% | 28.7% |
| 5/6/2024 | -2.2% | 2.5% | 9.4% |
| 1/31/2024 | -2.6% | -14.5% | -7.9% |
| 11/8/2023 | -1.8% | 0.9% | 10.1% |
| 8/8/2023 | -3.2% | -8.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/9/2023 | 4.6% | 8.6% | 34.0% |
| 2/28/2023 | -2.2% | -2.2% | -12.0% |
| 11/9/2022 | 12.0% | -1.2% | -15.6% |
| 8/11/2022 | 21.2% | 2.4% | -2.4% |
| 5/16/2022 | 4.6% | -15.3% | -20.0% |
| 2/28/2022 | -4.6% | -12.3% | -13.1% |
| 9/8/2021 | 37.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 12.0% | 5.5% | 19.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -7.2% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 37.3% | 39.8% | 54.0% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -15.3% | -20.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -34.6% | -25.5% | 48.4% |
| 3Y History | -1.3% | 13.2% | 47.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Rocket Lab stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Rocket Lab. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| RKLB Earnings Dates | RKLB | ATRO |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.1% | -15.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | 28.4% | -18.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.6% | -12.8% |
| 5/6/2024 | -2.2% | 9.0% |
| 8/8/2023 | -3.2% | -14.3% |
| 11/9/2022 | 12.0% | -7.0% |
| 8/11/2022 | 21.2% | 0.0% |
| CORRELATION | 23.3% |
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