Aptiv Stock To $48?
Aptiv (APTV) stock has fallen by 15.4% in less than a month, from $73.39 on 4th Mar, 2026, to $62.09 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in the context of our unattractive opinion of the stock, suggests the possibility of further downside. A price of $48 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell Aptiv Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on APTV stock to help you make the decision. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 3.9%, with the median peak return reaching 42%. We define a sharp dip as a stock going down 20% or more in a less than 30-day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 6.0% |
| 3M | 10.6% |
| 6M | 9.3% |
| 12M | 3.9% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
APTV had 13 events since 11/17/2011 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 42% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 210 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -14% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | APTV Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | APTV | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 4% | 42% | -14% | 210 | ||||
| 3302026 | -22% | -5% | -7% | 4% | -7% | 1 | ||
| 4042025 | -21% | -16% | 17% | 67% | -10% | 280 | ||
| 11042024 | -22% | 0% | 50% | 57% | -14% | 333 | ||
| 11022023 | -21% | -0% | -28% | 17% | -27% | 56 | ||
| 9232022 | -23% | -12% | 15% | 47% | -6% | 145 | ||
| 6162022 | -22% | -15% | 16% | 43% | -9% | 244 | ||
| 5112022 | -28% | -15% | 2% | 36% | -14% | 280 | ||
| 3012022 | -23% | -7% | -1% | 7% | -34% | 28 | ||
| 1282022 | -20% | -6% | -14% | 12% | -40% | 19 | ||
| 3092020 | -25% | -17% | 108% | 128% | -51% | 350 | ||
| 5222019 | -21% | -1% | 4% | 42% | -51% | 210 | ||
| 12212018 | -22% | -14% | 57% | 61% | -2% | 362 | ||
| 1132016 | -20% | -9% | 3% | 12% | -19% | 104 | ||
1Y Refers to 1 year or time since recent dip, whichever is smaller
Aptiv Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 3.5% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 5.5% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 10.7% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 3.5 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 5.1 |
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