Rivian Automotive Stock Tumbled 24% – Opportunity or Trap?
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock has fallen by 24.0% in less than a month, from $22.45 on 19th Dec, 2025 to $17.06 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, RIVN stock passes basic quality checks. But the bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -20%, with median peak return of 21%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -27.7% |
| 3M | -39.5% |
| 6M | -35.0% |
| 12M | -19.8% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
RIVN had 5 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 21% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 140 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -47% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | RIVN Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | RIVN | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -20% | 21% | -47% | 140 | ||||
| 1302024 | -30% | 4% | -20% | 16% | -46% | 164 | ||
| 10262023 | -33% | -8% | -33% | 51% | -48% | 54 | ||
| 3132023 | -31% | -5% | -15% | 99% | -27% | 140 | ||
| 12162022 | -30% | 4% | 8% | 21% | -47% | 227 | ||
| 12292021 | -33% | 3% | -81% | 4% | -82% | 2 | ||
Rivian Automotive Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 28.2% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 103.0% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 18.6% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -11.2 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 24.4 |
Not sure if you can take a call on RIVN stock? Consider portfolio approach
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