Buy or Sell Fluence Energy Stock?
Fluence Energy (FLNC) stock has jumped 13% during the past day, and is currently trading at $25.50. We believe there are several things to fear in FLNC stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. This is aligned with the stock’s Low valuation because of which we think it is Fairly Priced.
Below is our assessment:
| CONCLUSION | |
|---|---|
| What you pay: | |
| Valuation | Low |
| What you get: | |
| Growth | Weak |
| Profitability | Very Weak |
| Financial Stability | Very Strong |
| Downturn Resilience | Very Weak |
| Operating Performance | Weak |
| Stock Opinion | Fairly Priced |
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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $3.3 Bil in market cap, Fluence Energy provides integrated energy storage solutions combining hardware, software, and digital intelligence for utilities, developers, and commercial and industrial customers.
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[1] Valuation Looks Low
| FLNC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-Sales Ratio | 1.5 | 3.3 |
| Price-to-Earnings Ratio | -70.5 | 24.2 |
| Price-to-Free Cash Flow Ratio | -19.4 | 21.6 |
This table highlights how FLNC is valued vs broader market. For more details see: FLNC Valuation Ratios
[2] Growth Is Weak
- Fluence Energy has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 30.2% over the last 3 years
- Its revenues have fallen -16% from $2.7 Bil to $2.3 Bil in the last 12 months
- Also, its quarterly revenues declined -15.2% to $1.0 Bil in the most recent quarter from $1.2 Bil a year ago.
| FLNC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Year Average | 30.2% | 5.6% |
| Latest Twelve Months* | -16.1% | 6.3% |
| Most Recent Quarter (YoY)* | -15.2% | 7.3% |
This table highlights how FLNC is growing vs broader market. For more details see: FLNC Revenue Comparison
[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak
- FLNC last 12 month operating income was $-46 Mil representing operating margin of -2.0%
- With cash flow margin of -6.4%, it generated nearly $-146 Mil in operating cash flow over this period
- For the same period, FLNC generated nearly $-48 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about -2.1%
| FLNC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Operating Margin | -2.0% | 18.8% |
| Current OCF Margin | -6.4% | 20.5% |
| Current Net Income Margin | -2.1% | 13.0% |
This table highlights how FLNC profitability vs broader market. For more details see: FLNC Operating Income Comparison
[4] Financial Stability Looks Very Strong
- FLNC Debt was $391 Mil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $3.3 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 11.5%
- FLNC Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $691 Mil of $2.4 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 29.3%
| FLNC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 11.5% | 19.9% |
| Current Cash-to-Assets Ratio | 29.3% | 7.2% |
[5] Downturn Resilience Is Very Weak
FLNC has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
2022 Inflation Shock
- FLNC stock fell 83.2% from a high of $37.61 on 15 November 2021 to $6.31 on 12 May 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $31.13 on 18 July 2023 , and currently trades at $25.50
| FLNC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -83.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read FLNC Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.