How Will Rigetti Computing Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 10, 2025. The company has $10 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $7.9 Mil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-77 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-165 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Rigetti Computing’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 11 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 5 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 44% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 5 positive returns = 6.4%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -2.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2025 | 6.4% | -6.4% | 3.0% |
| 3/5/2025 | 4.0% | 9.4% | -0.4% |
| 11/12/2024 | -2.0% | -14.5% | 385.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -4.9% | 6.6% | -17.1% |
| 3/14/2024 | -0.8% | -14.6% | -45.5% |
| 11/9/2023 | -7.6% | 2.9% | -2.9% |
| 8/10/2023 | 39.0% | 20.1% | 23.8% |
| 3/27/2023 | -0.1% | 21.9% | -18.0% |
| 11/14/2022 | 4.2% | 15.8% | -17.6% |
| 8/11/2022 | 11.5% | 30.6% | -43.5% |
| 3/10/2022 | -3.0% | -17.6% | -18.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| # Negative | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.4% | 15.8% | 23.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -14.6% | -17.8% |
| Max Positive | 39.0% | 30.6% | 385.5% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -17.6% | -45.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -28.8% | -18.5% | -46.2% |
| 3Y History | -37.5% | -17.6% | -55.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Rigetti Computing stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Rigetti Computing. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| RGTI Earnings Dates | RGTI | AAPL |
| 8/12/2025 | 6.4% | 10.8% |
| 11/12/2024 | -2.0% | -0.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | -4.9% | -2.3% |
| 11/9/2023 | -7.6% | 2.7% |
| 8/10/2023 | 39.0% | -6.9% |
| 11/14/2022 | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| 8/11/2022 | 11.5% | 7.2% |
| CORRELATION | -43.6% |
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