RCL Stock Falls -13% In 6-Day Spree On Stifel’s Price Target Cut To $380
Royal Caribbean (RCL) – a global cruise line operator under multiple luxury brands – hit 6-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to a -13%. The company market cap has crashed by about $11 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $73 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 3.2% compared to -0.7% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Stifel Price Target Reduction and Pre-Earnings Jitters
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- Stifel lowered its price target for RCL to $380 from $400 on January 20, 2026
- Analyst expressed nervousness about potentially aggressive investor expectations for the upcoming 2026 guidance
- Impact: Heightened Investor Concern, Negative Stock Price Momentum
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are only a couple of things to fear in RCL stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. Considering stock’s Moderate valuation, we think it is Attractive (For details, see Buy or Sell RCL).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -13% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for RCL stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | RCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -2.2% | -2.1% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | -13.3% | -2.4% |
| 1M (21D) | -4.9% | 1.1% |
| 3M (63D) | -9.8% | 2.0% |
| YTD 2026 | -3.2% | -0.7% |
| 2025 | 22.5% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 79.0% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 162.0% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: RCL Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 21 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 91 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 4 | 51 |
| 4D | 4 | 14 |
| 5D | 5 | 10 |
| 6D | 6 | 9 |
| 7D or more | 2 | 7 |
| Total >=3 D | 21 | 91 |
Key Financials for Royal Caribbean (RCL)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $13.9 Bil | $16.5 Bil |
| Operating Income | $2.9 Bil | $4.1 Bil |
| Net Income | $1.7 Bil | $2.9 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $4.5 Bil | $5.1 Bil |
| Operating Income | $1.3 Bil | $1.7 Bil |
| Net Income | $1.2 Bil | $1.6 Bil |
The losing streak RCL stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.