Will Rubrik Stock Trend Higher Post Earnings?

June 3rd, 2025 by Trefis Team
RBRK: Rubrik logo
RBRK
Rubrik

Rubrik (NYSE:RBRK), a cloud data management and security platform, is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, June 5, 2025. As a relatively new company, we have limited historical data—only four past earnings announcements to analyze. In its previous four earnings reports, Rubrik’s stock has shown mixed one-day returns:

  • Two instances of positive returns, with a median gain of 24.1%.
  • Two instances of negative returns, with a median decline of -5.2%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can be beneficial, though much will depend on how the upcoming results compare to market consensus and expectations. There are two primary approaches to consider:

  • Pre-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the historical odds and take a position before the earnings release.
  • Post-Earnings Positioning: Examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released, then position yourself accordingly.

Analysts expect Rubrik to report a loss of $0.32 per share on sales of $260.4 million. This compares to a loss of $1.58 per share on sales of $187.3 million in the same quarter last year. From a fundamental perspective, Rubrik currently has a market capitalization of $18 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $887 million in revenue but was operationally loss-making, reporting operating losses of $1.1 billion and a net loss of $1.2 billion. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

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Image by Gino Crescoli from Pixabay

Rubrik’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 4 earnings data points recorded over the last year or so, with 2 positive and 2 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
  • The percentage remains the same at 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 2 positive returns = 24%, and median of the 2 negative returns = -5.2%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

RBRK 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on most recent history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

RBRK Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Rubrik stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Rubrik. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

RBRK Correlation With Peer Earnings

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Rubrik, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

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