How Will RBC Bearings Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
RBC Bearings (NYSE:RBC) is set to report its earnings on Friday, October 31, 2025. The company has $13 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $1.7 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $397 Mil in operating profits and net income of $253 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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RBC Bearings’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 58% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 75% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 2.0%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -4.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/1/2025 | 3.2% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| 5/16/2025 | 0.2% | -2.0% | 0.5% |
| 1/31/2025 | 8.3% | 13.5% | 10.5% |
| 11/1/2024 | 1.8% | 13.3% | 19.6% |
| 8/2/2024 | -4.0% | -3.4% | 3.4% |
| 5/17/2024 | 8.1% | 9.5% | 2.1% |
| 2/8/2024 | -5.4% | -0.6% | -1.8% |
| 11/9/2023 | 1.3% | 11.2% | 20.0% |
| 8/4/2023 | 3.0% | 5.0% | 9.0% |
| 5/19/2023 | -5.3% | -9.0% | -7.1% |
| 2/9/2023 | 1.9% | 1.5% | -7.1% |
| 11/10/2022 | 1.7% | -0.6% | -8.4% |
| 8/4/2022 | -6.7% | 1.7% | -3.6% |
| 5/26/2022 | 6.5% | 24.0% | 17.9% |
| 2/10/2022 | 2.0% | 4.6% | 7.6% |
| 11/12/2021 | -1.4% | -6.5% | -12.9% |
| 8/5/2021 | -0.8% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| 5/21/2021 | -0.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% |
| 1/29/2021 | -4.2% | 3.0% | 16.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 4.6% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -2.7% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 8.3% | 24.0% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -9.0% | -12.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 9.1% | -7.4% | 3.3% |
| 3Y History | 8.6% | -10.7% | 0.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of RBC Bearings stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before RBC Bearings. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Earnings Dates | RBC | AYI | VICR |
| 8/1/2025 | 3.2% | N/A* | -3.0% |
| 1/31/2025 | 8.3% | 6.0% | N/A* |
| 11/1/2024 | 1.8% | N/A* | 6.0% |
| 8/2/2024 | -4.0% | N/A* | -1.1% |
| 11/9/2023 | 1.3% | N/A* | -31.8% |
| 8/4/2023 | 3.0% | N/A* | 30.7% |
| 11/10/2022 | 1.7% | N/A* | 9.0% |
| 8/4/2022 | -6.7% | N/A* | 37.2% |
| 11/12/2021 | -1.4% | N/A* | 11.4% |
| 8/5/2021 | -0.8% | N/A* | 10.2% |
| 1/29/2021 | -4.2% | -0.7% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 100.0% | 15.0% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after RBC
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