How Will QXO Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
QXO (NYSE:QXO) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. The company has $13 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.8 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-245 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-279 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
You can’t predict what happens to individual stocks, but you can prepare. See how the Trefis High Quality Portfolio helps you.
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QXO’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 6 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 2 positive and 4 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 33% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 2 positive returns = 1.9%, and median of the 4 negative returns = -3.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/15/2026 | -4.8% | -4.4% | 7.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | 0.1% | -4.4% | -2.2% |
| 8/14/2025 | -0.2% | -8.5% | -1.4% |
| 3/4/2025 | 3.7% | 7.4% | 14.8% |
| 11/13/2024 | -5.9% | -2.0% | -1.4% |
| 8/14/2024 | -1.8% | 13.2% | 36.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| # Negative | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 10.3% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.4% | -1.4% |
| Max Positive | 3.7% | 13.2% | 36.5% |
| Max Negative | -5.9% | -8.5% | -2.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -16.9% | 1.2% | 8.2% |
| 3Y History | -16.9% | 1.2% | 8.2% |
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