Q2 Stock To $42?
Q2 (QTWO) stock has fallen by 23.0% in less than a month, from $78.80 on 9/22/2025 to $60.68 now. What comes next? As it turns out, the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of our Unattractive opinion of the stock, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $42 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on QTWO stock to help you make the decision. The stock has returned (median) 39% in one year, and 58% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, QTWO provides cloud-based digital banking solutions, including consumer banking, digital account opening, sales and marketing platforms, and bill payment services for regional and community financial institutions.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell Q2 Stock to see the full picture.
QTWO stock has fallen meaningfully recently and we currently find it unattractive. This may feel like a caution, and there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. However, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Let us ask you this: Over the last 5 years, which index do you think the Trefis High Quality Portfolio outperformed – the S&P 500, S&P 1500 Equal Weighted, or both? The answer might surprise you. See how our advisory framework helps stack the odds in your favor.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 13.4% |
| 3M | 18.1% |
| 6M | 18.3% |
| 12M | 38.8% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
QTWO had 8 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 58% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 323 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -20% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | QTWO Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | QTWO | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 39% | 58% | -20% | 323 | ||||
| 3132023 | -36% | -5% | 141% | 140% | 0% | 365 | ||
| 9262022 | -33% | -14% | -1% | 12% | -35% | 309 | ||
| 7182022 | -30% | -8% | -12% | 25% | -46% | 16 | ||
| 5092022 | -33% | -12% | -39% | 32% | -50% | 24 | ||
| 3252021 | -31% | 0% | -37% | 7% | -49% | 91 | ||
| 3162020 | -42% | -25% | 121% | 190% | 0% | 337 | ||
| 2052016 | -33% | -8% | 79% | 84% | -6% | 355 | ||
| 5092014 | -33% | 2% | 142% | 134% | 0% | 364 | ||
Q2 Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 13.1% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 11.8% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 23.0% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -1.6 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 93.8 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.