QuantumScape vs D-Wave Quantum: Which Is the Better Pick?
Both QuantumScape and D-Wave Quantum have captured investor imagination with their breakthrough technologies and spectacular 2025 returns of around 200% year-to-date. But if you had to pick just one for the next phase of the tech revolution, which would it be?
We believe QuantumScape is the superior choice. Below, we discuss why this solid-state battery pioneer edges out the quantum computing leader.
Image by Paul Brennan from Pixabay
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Why QuantumScape Takes the Lead
Technology Proven in Real-World Applications
The biggest question for both companies has always been: “When will this actually work?” QuantumScape just answered that definitively. In September 2025, the company showcased the world’s first live demonstration of an electric vehicle powered by solid-state batteries at IAA Mobility in Munich, featuring a Ducati V21L motorcycle equipped with their QSE-5 cells.
This wasn’t just a lab experiment—it was a functioning vehicle demonstrating 844Wh/L energy density, 10% to 80% charging in just 12 minutes, and continuous 10C output. D-Wave, despite having commercial systems available, still lacks mass-market applications that generate meaningful revenue.
Clear Path to Commercialization with Major Partners
While D-Wave talks about future potential, QuantumScape is executing a concrete roadmap. The company just shipped its B1 samples using the revolutionary Cobra process in Q3 2025—a production method that’s 25 times more efficient than its predecessor. These samples are heading directly into Volkswagen’s vehicle program for 2026 road testing.
The partnership strength tells the story: Volkswagen’s PowerCo just committed up to $131 million in milestone-based funding over two years. Meanwhile, Toyota is racing toward solid-state battery commercialization by 2027-2028, creating a massive market opportunity that QuantumScape is positioned to capture.
Revenue Visibility vs. Revenue Hopes
Here’s where the numbers get interesting. QuantumScape achieved its first-ever customer billings in Q3 2025 ($12.8 million), marking a critical transition from pure R&D to commercial activity. D-Wave, despite being further along in commercialization, still only expects around $3.12 million in quarterly revenue—hardly enough to justify a $10+ billion market cap.
Market Size and Timing Advantage
The global EV battery market dwarfs quantum computing applications by orders of magnitude. With Toyota targeting 2027-2028 for solid-state battery vehicles and other manufacturers following suit, QuantumScape sits at the center of a multi-trillion-dollar energy transition. D-Wave’s quantum applications, while promising, remain niche and years from widespread adoption.
The Risk Reality Check
It is crucial to acknowledge that investing in these companies is far from a guaranteed success. Both QuantumScape and D-Wave Quantum face significant, unique, and shared risks.
QuantumScape Risks: The Manufacturing Hurdle
Let’s be honest—QuantumScape isn’t a sure thing. The company’s biggest hurdle is scaling challenges: moving from successful lab samples to gigawatt-hour production at automotive volumes remains unproven. If commercialization timelines slip, the stock’s massive 180% gain this year could quickly evaporate. Furthermore, competition is intensifying, with established industry players like Toyota and SK On aggressively developing their own solid-state battery solutions.
D-Wave Quantum Risks: The Quantum Winter Threat
D-Wave faces the existential threat of a “quantum winter”—a scenario where practical quantum advantage takes longer than expected to materialize. While D-Wave’s quantum annealing approach is functional today, it risks being overshadowed by rival gate-based quantum computers for a wide range of future applications. With revenue still minimal and competition intensifying from tech giants like IBM and Google, D-Wave’s early-mover advantage could easily erode. Also see – What’s The Downside Risk For D-Wave Quantum Stock?
Shared Speculative Risks
Both companies share significant vulnerabilities due to their current financial positioning:
- Sky-High Valuations: Both carry valuations based on future potential rather than current financial fundamentals.
- Market Volatility: Market sentiment toward highly speculative tech stocks remains volatile, meaning any broader tech selloff could dramatically impact both positions. See how QS stock fared in recent economic downturns.
- Capital Vulnerability: Since neither company is profitable, they remain highly vulnerable to tightening capital market conditions and the need for future financing.
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The Verdict
In this comparison, QuantumScape wins because it offers a clearer, more immediate path to massive commercial validation within a larger addressable market.
While D-Wave pioneered the commercial quantum computing sector, QuantumScape is pioneering the energy storage revolution that will power the next decade of transportation. QS demonstrates tangible progress toward commercial reality: the live vehicle demonstration, B1 sample shipments, and the Volkswagen partnership all align with a practical 2027–2028 commercial timeline that meets automotive industry demands.
In contrast, D-Wave’s quantum applications, though technically impressive, still lack the immediate market pull and revenue potential currently visible for solid-state batteries. For investors betting on truly transformative technologies, QuantumScape offers a more direct path to massive returns in a market that is already actively demanding the solution they are building.
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