PYPL Falls -28% In 9-Day Spree On Earnings Miss & Guidance Shock
PayPal (PYPL) – a digital payments platform for merchants and consumers worldwide – hit a 9-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -28%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $15 Bil over the last 9 days and currently stands at $38 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 29.7% compared to 0.5% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Q4 Earnings Miss & Weak 2026 Guidance
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- Adjusted Q4 EPS of $1.23 missed estimates of ~$1.29
- 2026 profit forecast well below analyst expectations
- Impact: Stock plunge of over 16% post-announcement, Multiple analyst downgrades and price target cuts
[2] Abrupt CEO Change
- CEO Alex Chriss replaced after a short tenure
- Board cited pace of change was not in line with expectations
- Impact: Increased leadership uncertainty, Heightened execution risk concerns
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is a near-equal mix of good and bad in PYPL stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. Taken together with its Very Low valuation, this makes the stock look Attractive (For details, see Buy or Sell PYPL).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -28% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for PYPL stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | PYPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -1.6% | -0.5% |
| 9D (Current Streak) | -28.2% | -0.4% |
| 1M (21D) | -30.8% | -0.3% |
| 3M (63D) | -39.8% | 0.4% |
| YTD 2026 | -29.7% | 0.5% |
| 2025 | -31.4% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 39.0% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -13.8% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: PYPL Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 124 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 36 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 61 | 12 |
| 4D | 22 | 7 |
| 5D | 27 | 4 |
| 6D | 13 | 5 |
| 7D or more | 1 | 8 |
| Total >=3 D | 124 | 36 |
Key Financials for PayPal (PYPL)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $31.8 Bil | $33.2 Bil |
| Operating Income | $5.8 Bil | $6.4 Bil |
| Net Income | $4.1 Bil | $5.2 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ3 | 2025 FQ4 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $8.4 Bil | $8.7 Bil |
| Operating Income | $1.6 Bil | $1.6 Bil |
| Net Income | $1.2 Bil | $1.4 Bil |
The losing streak PYPL stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.