Pegasystems Stock To $59?
Pegasystems (PEGA) stock has fallen by 27.2% in less than a month, from $61.29 on 30th Dec, 2025 to $44.62 now. What comes next? We believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering history of recovery post-dips and our current Attractive opinion of the stock. Read Buy or Sell Pegasystems Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, PEGA stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 42%, with median peak return reaching 242%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 1.0% |
| 3M | 27.0% |
| 6M | 49.0% |
| 12M | 41.8% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
PEGA had 6 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 242% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 280 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -14% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | PEGA Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | PEGA | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 42% | 242% | -14% | 280 | ||||
| 3072025 | -30% | -6% | 30% | 76% | -18% | 234 | ||
| 5102022 | -35% | -12% | -15% | 110% | -42% | 23 | ||
| 3182020 | -31% | -27% | 79% | 369% | -3% | 331 | ||
| 11082012 | -31% | -4% | 92% | 298% | -4% | 326 | ||
| 12212011 | -32% | -2% | -15% | 186% | -30% | 118 | ||
| 8102010 | -31% | 5% | 53% | 305% | -10% | 332 | ||
Pegasystems Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 17.0% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 11.9% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 25.5% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 112.4 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 118.7 |
Not sure if you can take a call on PEGA stock? Consider portfolio approach
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