Phillips 66 Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
Phillips 66 (PSX) stock is down 6.9% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around its higher 2026 capital budget and falling crude oil prices, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Phillips 66 stands today.
- Size: Phillips 66 is a $53 Bil company with $132 Bil in revenue currently trading at $131.78.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of -10.7% and operating margin of 1.3%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.4 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.02
- Valuation: Phillips 66 stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 36.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 18.6
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 34.7% within a year. See PSX Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Very Weak operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Very Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell PSX Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is PSX stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose PSX stock falls another 20-30% to $92 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- PSX stock fell 32.7% from a high of $110.25 on 8 June 2022 to $74.16 on 26 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 November 2022
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $172.71 on 3 April 2024 , and currently trades at $131.78
| PSX | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -32.7% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 46 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- PSX stock fell 62.5% from a high of $112.20 on 2 January 2020 to $42.09 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 22 November 2022
| PSX | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -62.5% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 974 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- PSX stock fell 36.4% from a high of $123.34 on 31 July 2018 to $78.50 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 12 September 2023
| PSX | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -36.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1723 days | 120 days |
Feeling jittery about PSX stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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