Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Crypto: Market Update 2/12/2026
Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and last month.
- Equity fell -1.5% yesterday, versus 0.5% weekly and -1.8% monthly moves.
- Bonds increased 0.4% yesterday, consistent with weekly and monthly trends.
- Gold dropped -3.5% in the last session, with weekly and monthly changes of 2.2% and 7.1%, respectively.
- Commodities declined -2.3% yesterday and are now at 0.2% weekly and 1.8% monthly.
- Real estate decreased -0.1% yesterday, adding to weekly and monthly gains of 2.7% and 3.5%.
- Bitcoin gained 0.8% yesterday, with a 7.6% increase over the week and -29% over the month.
| ETF | 1D | 1W | 1M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -1.5% | 0.5% | -1.8% |
| Bonds | AGG | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Gold | GLD | -3.5% | 2.2% | 7.1% |
| Commodities | DBC | -2.3% | 0.2% | 1.8% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | 0.8% | 7.6% | -29.2% |
Why does it matter?
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- See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
- Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
- Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.
Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management—a Boston-area wealth manager—whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index—less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile
| ETF | Return | Volatility | Sharpe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | 15.4% | 14.9% | 86.0% |
| Bonds | AGG | 1.9% | 5.1% | -11.7% |
| Gold | GLD | 15.1% | 14.8% | 88.7% |
| Commodities | DBC | 8.0% | 15.9% | 40.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 6.1% | 17.6% | 26.8% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | 67.4% | 76.4% | 100.8% |
Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years
How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?
| Equity | Bonds | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | – | 12% | 20% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 12% | 4.2% | 34% | 24% | 35% | 73% | 68% | 64% | 26% | 39% | 42% |
| Bonds | 12% | 20% | 7.2% | – | 32% | 30% | 5.5% | -0.3% | -2.9% | -12% | 28% | 38% | 33% | 11% | 7.4% | -6.3% |
| Gold | 5.8% | 12% | 4.2% | 32% | 30% | 5.5% | – | 29% | 37% | 48% | 12% | 18% | 7.4% | 10% | 9.3% | 10% |
| Commodities | 34% | 24% | 35% | -0.3% | -2.9% | -12% | 29% | 37% | 48% | – | 23% | 15% | 26% | 10% | 12% | 18% |
| Real Estate | 73% | 68% | 64% | 28% | 38% | 33% | 12% | 18% | 7.4% | 23% | 15% | 26% | – | 18% | 25% | 20% |
| Bitcoin | 26% | 39% | 42% | 11% | 7.4% | -6.3% | 10% | 9.3% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 25% | 20% | – |
The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order
Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?
| ETF | Inflation Shock | Covid Pandemic | 2018 Correction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -23.0% | -30.4% | -19.3% |
| Bonds | AGG | -14.1% | -2.1% | 1.4% |
| Gold | GLD | -7.7% | -6.3% | 5.0% |
| Commodities | DBC | 20.5% | -23.7% | -16.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -29.8% | -41.6% | -11.1% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -56.0% | -33.5% | -37.4% |
The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.