How Will Paychex Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, June 24, 2026. The company has $34 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.6 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Paychex’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 3.5%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -3.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/25/2026 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 12/19/2025 | -1.7% | -0.0% | -6.2% |
| 9/30/2025 | -1.4% | -3.2% | -3.5% |
| 6/25/2025 | -9.4% | -3.2% | -2.1% |
| 3/26/2025 | 4.2% | 7.3% | 0.1% |
| 12/19/2024 | 1.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% |
| 10/1/2024 | 4.9% | 2.4% | 5.7% |
| 6/26/2024 | -6.1% | -5.3% | -0.8% |
| 4/2/2024 | 0.4% | 1.8% | -2.3% |
| 12/21/2023 | -7.0% | -6.5% | -3.9% |
| 9/27/2023 | 3.4% | 1.3% | -0.5% |
| 6/29/2023 | -1.2% | 2.7% | 14.3% |
| 3/29/2023 | 6.5% | 0.8% | -1.0% |
| 12/22/2022 | -2.3% | 1.5% | 3.4% |
| 9/28/2022 | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| 6/29/2022 | -4.2% | -2.4% | 7.0% |
| 3/30/2022 | 3.3% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 12/22/2021 | 5.5% | 8.7% | -6.1% |
| 9/30/2021 | 4.3% | 9.4% | 14.4% |
| 6/25/2021 | 1.3% | 4.0% | 8.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 2.6% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -3.2% | -2.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.4% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -6.5% | -6.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -34.6% | -48.5% | -23.9% |
| 3Y History | -41.1% | -46.0% | -5.6% |
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