How Will Five Below Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. The company has $14 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $5.1 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $561 million in operating profits and net income of $441 million. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Five Below’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 5.6%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -6.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 6/3/2026 | -13.8% | -12.1% | -20.9% |
| 3/18/2026 | 10.7% | 10.0% | 11.2% |
| 12/3/2025 | 3.2% | 8.6% | 24.0% |
| 8/27/2025 | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% |
| 6/4/2025 | 5.6% | 3.1% | 6.2% |
| 3/19/2025 | 0.7% | 3.0% | -10.7% |
| 12/4/2024 | 10.5% | 4.3% | -3.1% |
| 8/28/2024 | -0.9% | -3.7% | 17.3% |
| 6/5/2024 | -10.6% | -12.2% | -21.6% |
| 3/20/2024 | -15.4% | -12.0% | -28.1% |
| 11/29/2023 | 0.2% | 7.2% | 13.3% |
| 8/30/2023 | -6.0% | -12.2% | -12.1% |
| 6/1/2023 | 7.8% | 11.3% | 15.4% |
| 3/15/2023 | -1.4% | -0.5% | 4.0% |
| 11/30/2022 | 16.5% | 11.0% | 10.0% |
| 8/31/2022 | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% |
| 6/8/2022 | -1.4% | -9.0% | -11.3% |
| 3/30/2022 | -6.5% | -3.3% | -2.5% |
| 12/1/2021 | 5.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% |
| 9/1/2021 | -13.0% | -14.7% | -19.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.5% | -12.0% | -12.1% |
| Max Positive | 16.5% | 11.3% | 24.0% |
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -14.7% | -28.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -17.2% | 38.7% | 26.7% |
| 3Y History | -29.0% | 46.3% | 31.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Five Below stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Five Below. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| FIVE Earnings Dates | FIVE | TJX | ROST |
| 6/3/2026 | -13.8% | 5.7% | 8.1% |
| 3/18/2026 | 10.7% | -1.2% | 8.0% |
| 12/3/2025 | 3.2% | 0.2% | 8.4% |
| 8/27/2025 | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| 6/4/2025 | 5.6% | -2.9% | -9.8% |
| 3/19/2025 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| 12/4/2024 | 10.5% | 0.2% | 2.2% |
| 8/28/2024 | -0.9% | 6.1% | 1.8% |
| 6/5/2024 | -10.6% | 3.5% | 7.8% |
| 3/20/2024 | -15.4% | 0.6% | -0.7% |
| 11/29/2023 | 0.2% | -3.3% | 7.2% |
| 8/30/2023 | -6.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% |
| 6/1/2023 | 7.8% | 0.9% | -0.6% |
| 3/15/2023 | -1.4% | -1.7% | 0.1% |
| 11/30/2022 | 16.5% | 5.2% | 9.9% |
| 8/31/2022 | 6.3% | 2.8% | -1.1% |
| 6/8/2022 | -1.4% | 7.1% | -22.5% |
| 12/1/2021 | 5.0% | 5.8% | -5.6% |
| CORRELATION | -17.3% | 0.2% | |
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