Despite the negative effects of high inflation figures, the falling unemployment rate has been a boon for human capital management firms including Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX). After observing a sell-off in early January, the stock again observed a dip in recent weeks. However, considering the company’s renewed expectations of 12-13% topline expansion for FY2022, Trefis believes that the stock is unlikely to observe further correction. Our machine learning engine’s analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, estimates a 68% chance of a rise in the coming weeks by comparing the recent uptick with historical stock price movements. See our analysis, Paychex Stock Chance of Rise, for more details.
Five Days: PAYX -3.5%, vs. S&P 500 -3.3%; Underperformed market (9% event probability)
- PAYX stock declined 3.5% over a five-day trading period, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 3.3% over the same period.
- Returns of -3.5% or lower over a five-day period on 218 occasions out of 2516 (9%); Stock rose in the next five days in 124 of these 218 instances (57%).
Ten Days: PAYX -6%, vs. S&P 500 -5.4%; Underperformed market (5% event probability)
- PAYX stock lost 6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 5.4%.
- Returns of -6% or lower over 10-day period on 115 occasions out of 2516 (5%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 68 of these 115 instances (59%).
Twenty-One Days: PAYX -6.5%, vs. S&P 500 -8.2%; Outperformed market (7% event probability)
- PAYX stock declined -6.5% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which lost 8.2%.
- Returns of -6.5% or lower over a 21-day period on 182 occasions out of 2515 (7%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 124 of these 182 instances (68%).
|S&P 500 Return||4%||-10%||92%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||5%||-13%||243%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/5/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016