How Will Ovintiv Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Ovintiv (NYSE:OVV) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 11, 2026. The company has $15 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $8.9 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.2 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Ovintiv’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 56% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.9%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -1.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/23/2026 | -1.5% | 2.6% | 16.7% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.7% | 5.7% | 13.4% |
| 7/24/2025 | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% |
| 2/26/2025 | 3.0% | -8.8% | 4.2% |
| 11/7/2024 | 3.9% | 7.6% | -0.5% |
| 7/30/2024 | 1.0% | -11.3% | -6.1% |
| 5/7/2024 | -3.0% | -5.2% | -7.9% |
| 2/27/2024 | 3.9% | 5.8% | 12.2% |
| 11/7/2023 | -1.5% | -1.6% | -9.6% |
| 7/27/2023 | 5.1% | 12.6% | 8.7% |
| 5/9/2023 | -1.6% | -7.8% | 9.3% |
| 2/27/2023 | -6.9% | -4.2% | -23.6% |
| 11/9/2022 | 6.5% | 9.2% | -7.6% |
| 8/4/2022 | 4.8% | 12.0% | 15.6% |
| 5/10/2022 | -1.7% | 7.3% | 36.2% |
| 2/25/2022 | 10.7% | 17.5% | 30.6% |
| 11/2/2021 | -3.3% | -4.1% | -10.5% |
| 7/28/2021 | 0.2% | -5.6% | -1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 7.5% | 12.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -5.4% | -7.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.7% | 17.5% | 36.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -11.3% | -23.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 22.9% | 16.9% | 4.2% |
| 3Y History | -2.4% | -17.1% | -13.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Ovintiv stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Ovintiv. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| OVV Earnings Dates | OVV | AR |
| 2/23/2026 | -1.5% | -3.2% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.7% | 4.1% |
| 2/26/2025 | 3.0% | -5.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | -3.0% | 9.3% |
| 2/27/2024 | 3.9% | 19.8% |
| 11/7/2023 | -1.5% | -1.4% |
| 7/27/2023 | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| 5/9/2023 | -1.6% | -3.3% |
| 2/27/2023 | -6.9% | -3.6% |
| 11/9/2022 | 6.5% | 0.7% |
| 8/4/2022 | 4.8% | -10.4% |
| 5/10/2022 | -1.7% | -2.4% |
| 2/25/2022 | 10.7% | 12.0% |
| 11/2/2021 | -3.3% | 4.5% |
| CORRELATION | 6.7% |
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