Oscar Health Stock Tumbled 22% – Opportunity or Trap?
Oscar Health (OSCR) stock has fallen by 21.7% in less than a month, from $15.70 on 26th Jan, 2026 to $12.30 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, OSCR stock passes basic quality checks. But the bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -10%, with median peak return of 31%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 9.8% |
| 3M | -4.7% |
| 6M | -12.8% |
| 12M | -10.0% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
OSCR had 9 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 31% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 64 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -55% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | OSCR Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | OSCR | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -10% | 31% | -55% | 64 | ||||
| 11142025 | -36% | 0% | -10% | 31% | -12% | 12 | ||
| 8042025 | -35% | 6% | -10% | 62% | -12% | 64 | ||
| 11072024 | -33% | 4% | 11% | 65% | -15% | 334 | ||
| 6282024 | -30% | 3% | 5% | 47% | -27% | 83 | ||
| 9262022 | -38% | -14% | 14% | 101% | -55% | 260 | ||
| 5092022 | -32% | -12% | 5% | 22% | -67% | 98 | ||
| 11122021 | -31% | 8% | -77% | 0% | -81% | 0 | ||
| 7202021 | -32% | 2% | -74% | 3% | -80% | 1 | ||
| 4212021 | -35% | 8% | -61% | 30% | -74% | 47 | ||
Oscar Health Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 27.5% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 42.1% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 9.4% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -23.8 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 226.7 |
Not sure if you can take a call on OSCR stock? Consider portfolio approach
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