ORLY Stock Surges 7% With A 6-day Spree On Strong Analyst Ratings
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) – a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts and tools – hit 6-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 7%. The company market cap has surged by about $5.6 Bil over the last 6 days, and currently stands at $85 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 9.9% compared to 1.5% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] Sustained Institutional Accumulation
- Can AppLovin Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
- With Salesforce Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk?
- With Southwest Airlines Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside?
- Is Walt Disney Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
- Would You Still Hold VSE Stock If It Fell Another 30%?
- What’s The Downside Risk For XRP?
- Morgan Stanley reiterated “overweight” rating with a $110 price target
- Consensus “Buy” rating from 18 analysts as of January 23, 2026
- Impact: Steady price increase over consecutive trading days, Increased investor confidence
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are only a couple of things to fear in ORLY stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell ORLY).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this 7% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To catch the next winner before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has flagged 5 new opportunities that haven not surged yet.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for ORLY stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | ORLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | 7.0% | 0.1% |
| 1M (21D) | 8.9% | 0.6% |
| 3M (63D) | 2.0% | 3.1% |
| YTD 2026 | 9.9% | 1.5% |
| 2025 | 15.4% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 24.8% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 12.6% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has ORLY behaved after prior drops? See ORLY Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 65 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 42 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 17 | 37 |
| 4D | 35 | 0 |
| 5D | 9 | 4 |
| 6D | 3 | 0 |
| 7D or more | 1 | 1 |
| Total >=3 D | 65 | 42 |
Key Financials for O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $15.8 Bil | $16.7 Bil |
| Operating Income | $3.2 Bil | $3.3 Bil |
| Net Income | $2.3 Bil | $2.4 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $4.5 Bil | $4.7 Bil |
| Operating Income | $914.5 Mil | $976.1 Mil |
| Net Income | $668.6 Mil | $725.9 Mil |
While ORLY stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.