Would You Still Hold VSE Stock If It Fell Another 30%?
VSE (VSEC) stock is down 12.6% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed investor caution surrounding its major Precision Aviation Group acquisition and related financing within its core aviation services, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where VSE stands today.
- Size: VSE is a $3.9 Bil company with $1.3 Bil in revenue currently trading at $190.93.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 67.8% and operating margin of 9.3%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.1 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.01
- Valuation: VSE stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 352.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 39.4
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 109% within a year. See VSEC Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Fairly Priced. For details, see Buy or Sell VSEC Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is VSEC stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose VSEC stock falls another 20-30% to $134 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- VSEC stock fell 47.9% from a high of $63.65 on 12 November 2021 to $33.13 on 13 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 December 2023
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $218.57 on 1 February 2026 , and currently trades at $190.93
| VSEC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -47.9% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 526 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- VSEC stock fell 63.6% from a high of $38.04 on 1 January 2020 to $13.83 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 December 2020
| VSEC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -63.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 267 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- VSEC stock fell 59.2% from a high of $59.13 on 20 October 2017 to $24.11 on 31 May 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 5 November 2021
| VSEC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -59.2% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 889 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- VSEC stock fell 66.2% from a high of $30.84 on 15 October 2007 to $10.41 on 11 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 April 2014
| VSEC | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -66.2% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,876 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about VSEC stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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