How Oracle Stock Gained 110%
Oracle (ORCL) stock soared over 100%, propelled less by modest revenue gains and slipping margins than by a surge in investor optimism. Behind the jump: AI breakthroughs, hefty cloud deals, and a rollercoaster of earnings that kept analysts—and the market—on their toes. Let’s unpack the story.
| 4232025 | 10202025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 130.9 | 277.2 | 111.8% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55,783.0 | 59,018.0 | 5.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.8% | 21.1% | -3.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.1 | 63.0 | 109.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,799.0 | 2,826.0 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 111.7% |
So what is happening here? The stock price surged 112%, driven mainly by a 109% jump in the P/E multiple, with revenue inching up 5.8% and net margin slipping 3.3%. Let’s explore what fueled this shift.
Before we get into details of events that led to stock surge, here is what market wisdom says: Single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Separately, consider what could long-term performance for your portfolio be if you combined 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with equities.
Here Is Why Oracle Stock Moved
- AI & Cloud Contracts: Secured major cloud deals with OpenAI, Meta, NVIDIA, AMD; RPO surged 359%.
- Q4 FY25 Earnings Beat: Reported strong Q4 FY25 results on June 11, 2025, driving stock to all-time high.
- Q1 FY26 Earnings Miss: Q1 FY26 EPS of $1.47 missed consensus ($1.48) on Sept 9, 2025, causing stock decline.
- Positive Analyst Views: Analysts maintained “Buy” ratings and raised targets on AI/cloud strategy optimism.
- AI World Innovations: Launched AI Agent Marketplace and strategic partnerships at Oracle AI World 2025.
Our Current Assesment Of ORCL Stock
Opinion: We currently find ORCL stock relatively expensive. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell ORCL Stock to see what drives our current opinion.
Risk: That said, Oracle isn’t immune to big drops. It plunged nearly 77% in the Dot-Com Bubble and slid over 41% during the Global Financial Crisis. The Inflation Shock wasn’t kind either, with a 40% dip. Even the smaller events — 2018 Correction and Covid Pandemic — pushed it down around 19% and 29% respectively. Solid fundamentals matter, but when sell-offs hit, Oracle can see serious pullbacks.
Picking winners on a consistent basis is not an easy task – especially given the volatility associated with a single stock. Instead, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.